WEC NL report 2025: The trade-offs of industry strategies
The new publication of the World Energy Council Netherlands, entitled “Valuing Industries: The Trade-Offs of Industry Strategies in a Changing Energy Landscape”, offers an analysis of the societal value of energy-intensive industries (EII) in Northwest Europe. At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and accelerating energy transition, this report poses the key question: Should the EII stay or move?
Featured Insights
The report offers policymakers, energy professionals and strategists valuable insights for decision-making:
1. Four future scenarios for 2040
The report examines four scenarios for energy-intensive industry:
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Full conservation with a focus on green hydrogen and electricity
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Full conservation with emphasis on natural gas and CCS technology
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Partial relocation of energy-intensive components
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Complete relocation of industry outside NW Europe
2. Three Dimensions of Assessment (the 'Trilemma')
The World Energy Trilemma model analyses costs and benefits for:
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Economic area: investment needs, employment, competitive position
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Environmental level: CO₂ emissions, land use, environmental impacts per scenario
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Strategic autonomy: dependence on production chains and energy sources
3. Data-driven substantiation
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Practical scenario comparisons for sectors such as steel, refining, fertilizers and steam crackers
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Quantification of investments in infrastructure, such as hydrogen networks and offshore wind
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Estimation of the macroeconomic importance of EII (5% of Dutch GDP and 3% of employment)
4. Recommendations for policymakers
The report emphasises the importance of:
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European coordination of climate policy
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Socially responsible choices about subsidies and market forces
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Insight into long-term competitiveness per sector
Social discussions about the future of the industry
This study helps anchor societal discussions about the future of industry in facts and scenarios rather than assumptions. The outlined approach for a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) provides tools for well-considered industrial policy that serves both climate goals and economic resilience.
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