Scenario study Green gas production around 2030

The study – conducted by C. E. Delft en New Energy Coalition – explores the development of the number of green gas installations, the locations of installations, and green gas production volumes in the Netherlands towards 2030.

The results show that the 3,8 Mton CO₂ reduction target set for the blending obligation can be achieved by producing 1,1 billion cubic meters (BCM) of green gas. The study also indicates that green gas production in the Netherlands could increase to between 2030 and 1,3 billion cubic meters (BCM) by 1,8. The number of green gas installations in the Netherlands could grow from 87 installations in 2023 to between 394 and 695 installations in 2030.

Key insights

Ambitions and growth potential

• • Green gas production can increase from 280 million m³ in 2023 to 1,3 to 1,8 billion m³ in 2030, depending on the chosen scenario.
  • The objective of 1,1 billion m³ of green gas for the blending obligation seems feasible, but additional policy measures are needed.

Locations and infrastructure

• • Suitable locations are port areas, industrial estates, sewage treatment plants (WWTPs), agricultural areas and former mining sites.
  • The gas infrastructure must be adapted to facilitate the feeding of green gas into the grid.

Availability of bio-based raw materials

• • The Netherlands has enough manure (755 million m³/year) and other biomass (647 million m³/year) for green gas production.
  • Import of bio-based raw materials is becoming increasingly important, especially for large installations.

Challenges and policy measures

• • Faster permit procedures and better cooperation between government and companies are needed to realise new installations on time.
  • SDE++ subsidies and blending obligations remain essential to stimulate investments.
  • Grid congestion on the electricity grid could slow the growth of green gas production.

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